Euro Home Win Strategy Returns

The major European leagues are beginning to find their feet which means the return of the profitable 'Mine's a Scotch' strategy.  The strategy requires at least 6 games to be played hence only one selection this weekend, but this will pick up in the coming weeks with additional selections from LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A and, of course, the EPL (click here for this strategy page).

The summer has been somewhat of a transitional period for my betting activity with less focus on outright bets and a move into trading.  I intend to write a blog post about this but, to summarise, I feel the opportunities are greater for my style of approach and the likelihood of increased profits from being able to recycle the betting bank a lot quicker.  As a result, I will be posting fewer outright picks in future.  Instead, the content will be more information based which I hope will be of use to bettors and traders alike.  I have been working on various goal and correct score calculators and I hope to make these predictions available on the blog.

I have included a sample of some of the content that will be appearing on the site over the next few weeks.  It is a stats snapshot for Arsenal v Chelsea this afternoon.  The information contained will be more useful as the various leagues mature but I will be back with a post which explains what these snapshots show soon.  For the time being, here is a taster and if you can think of any additions or ways it might be improved, feel free to get in touch...

Malmo v Mjallby Trade, 1st Sep 2012

I'm still tip-toeing around the English Premier League at the moment while the league settles down so I will be concentrating on the Swedish Allsvenkan today and Malmo v Mjallby.  I've been analysing the predictive model that I have been testing on the Swedish and Norwegian leagues of late and I've made some very interesting observations which I would expect will improve the strike rate.

The stats for today's game...



The stat that immediately jumps out is Malmo's goals against record at home - 0 in the last 6 and 0.1 per game average for the season to date.  Despite Mjallby's better than a goal per game average, odds of around evens for 'No' in the BTTS market looks like a gift.  I would expect that Malmo's home defensive superiority and the fact that they are not as prolific at home can be explained by most away teams playing tight when they visit Malmo.

The Correct Score model is predicting 1-0  1-1  2-0  2-1  AUQ but given the home odds of 1.4 for the win and the expectation of the away side failing to score, I will be trading  

1-0, 2-0, 2-1 & AUQ.

All the best

Ronnie