Premier Trade: Reading v Southampton

The lunchtime kickoff sees an in form Southampton travel to lowly Reading.  Southampton are all but guaranteed Premier League football next season having beat both Liverpool and Chelsea in recent weeks while Reading will be hoping a change in manager will provide the lift required to make a last ditch attempt to survive relegation.  Reading are at the stage now where they need to have a go at getting out of trouble and Southampton can afford to play their natural game which usually lends itself to a few goals .

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum (W0 D0 L6) v (W3 D1 L2)
• iFB expected goals 1.90 v 1.63
• Combined mean season Over 2.5 occurrence is 61-70%
• Combined average goals / game (last 6) is 3.25
• Comparing performance against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): D v D
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 61%
• BTTS 'Yes' expectation is 65%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 for 70% of stake
• Dutch 0-2 & 2-0 for 20% of stake
• Dutch 0-1 & 1-0 for remaining 10% of stake
• The Profit / Loss across the book should read approx.
• 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 : +185%
• 0-1 & 1-0: -35%
• 0-2 & 2-0: +90%
• All other scores: -100%
•  Exit
• Decide on an acceptable loss (e.g. 50% of stake) and exit at this point if the trade goes against us.
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• 1-1 - this is not too much of a problem until approximately 70mins as the potential profit on the 1-2 & 2-1 scorelines will counteract this risk.  If 1-1 at this stage of the game consider how the game is unfolding and exit accordingly bearing in mind your acceptable loss
• Upwards of the target scorelines - consider greening up or spending some potential on additional scorelines. 

If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie

Goal List Prep: 15th February

19:00 - Veendam v Almere City

19:00 - Dordrecht v G.A Eagles

19:00 - MVV v Cambuur

Goal List Prep: Friday 8th February

19:00 - Dordrecht v Helmond

19:00 - De Graafschap v Eindhoven

19:00 - Excelsior v MVV

19:00 - Cambuur v Veendam

Goal List Prep: Sunday 27th January 2013

I started posting my prep for @SportsTraderMac's Goal List selections yesterday, and following some good feedback, I will continue to do so going forward.  If you are using the Goal List I strongly recommend reading the Goal List Report which identifies a number of trends to help profit from the selections - hopefully the information presented here will assist in informing your particular betting / trading choice.

Something that struck me from yesterdays pre-match analysis was that one of the correct scores highlighted landed in 5 out of the 7 matches; certainly something to keep an eye on.

11:30 - Bologna v Roma

11:30 - Vitesse v Ajax

16:00 - Rayo Vallecano v Betis

17:00 - Galatasaray v Besiktas

18:00 - Barcelona v Osasuna

Season 11/12 Strategy Results Summary

The following is a summary of results for the iFootball Betting TIPS strategy picks as advertised on the blog since January 2012.  The results are for the Over 1.5 and 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals and the home win strategy picks...



 

iFootball Betting TIPS will be back with more strategy picks for the start of the 2012/13 major European Leagues.