Premier Trade - Liverpool v Aston Villa

The advertised Premier League trades got off to a great start last weekend with 2 from 3 winning and the starting bank growing by over 10%.  The justification for the Everton v Spurs trade was spot even if the goals weren't distributed a little more evenly throughout the match (2 goals after 90 mins wasn't what I expected!).  While the Everton game delivered a healthy profit, I would have got out of the game a lot earlier (for a loss) had it not been for scalping the 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1 scorelines to leave a loss of 25% had the target scores not landed.  So, onto today's trade...

Liverpool and Aston Villa

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum with Liverpool (W3 D2 L1) v (W1 D3 L2)
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 25-38%
• Expected goals 1.59 v 0.51
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): B v C
• Home win represents -29% value
• Under 2.5 goals expectation is 63% (18% value)
• Expectation of 4+ goals is 21%
• Home goals expectation: <3.5 is 100%    <2.5 is 79%
• Away goals expectation: <2.5 is 100%    <1.5 is 89%

Trade:

• Entry

• Back Under 2.5 goals for 70% stake
• Dutch 2-1,1-2 & 3-0 for the remaining 30% stake

•  Exit
• Hedge correct score market after 3rd goal; or
• Hedge both markets after 2nd goal
• If looks like a low scoring game just leave

• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• 0-3 and Over 3.5 goals
• Can scalp in the CS market for cover / reduced liability
• If 0-0 at half time can remove stake / reduce liability in Under 2.5s

If you want to learn more about trading in general check out The Sports Trading Academy for strategies, webinars, suggested trades and in-play advice from pro traders