Premier Trade Wigan v Arsenal

I should have known better than to trade the reliably unreliable Liverpool last weekend but I still stand by the statistical evidence that supported the trade choice - all of the value was in the unders market and it wasn't like I was backing Liverpool (other than with cover bets).  Still, I'm sure the biggest Liverpool sceptic didn't see Villa taking a 3-0 lead. 

Despite the result landing outside of the target scores, the bank only took a hit of approximately -1%.  Given that the trade was hedged in favour of Under 2.5 goals, I didn't indulge in the usual 0-0 scalp as all of the low scores were covered.  However, at 0-2 I was exposed in the correct score market.  0-3 was available at odds of 19 and 2-2 at the horrendous price of 5s (another example of the blind faith in Liverpool I assume).  I covered the 0-3 at this point which meant I could wait for another goal as 1-2 was already backed pre-match.  Villa's third came very soon after the interval so I looked for cover in the U/O 4.5 goals market - once the market settled I layed the O4.5 which was trading at 1.8 and scalped this right up until about the 80th minute leaving all the green on the unders side.   There was an opportunity at this point to hedge for scratch overall, but I was quite happy to risk a small loss for no further goals.  Of course, Liverpool added a late consolation and the trade made a loss of 22% of the original stake.

On to this weekend's trade...

Wigan v Arsenal

The festive fixtures begin with a lunchtime kick-off at the DW Stadium where Wigan entertain Arsenal.   I would expect plenty of support in Over 2.5 goals for this fixture especially given that the last four encounters between the two have all involved 3+ goals.  Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.72 but I'm looking towards the 1st half to deliver extra value and a potentially bigger return.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum with Arsenal (W1 D1 L4) v (W3 D2 L1)
• Over 2.5 goals expectation based on games involving Wigan this season is 71-78%
• Respective Home and Away results this season have seen 0-0 HT on 2/18 occasions
• High expectancy of 1st goal before 20 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): D v A
• Away win represents >10% value in both Ht & FT markets
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 63%, Over 3.5 goals is 47%
• Expectation of 1st half being highest scoring is 42% (11% value)
• Over 1.5 1st half goals expectation is 58% (18% value)

Trade:

• Entry

• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 in Half Time Score market for 30% stake
• Dutch 2-0,1-1 & 0-2 in Half Time Score market for the remaining 70% stake

•  Exit
• Hedge after 2nd goal to either remove liability or for a profit across all scores

• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• Over 2.5 1st half goals - this is not a problem if you hedge after the 2nd goal
• Half time 0-0 - scalp 0-0 in the Correct Score market and hedge across all other scores at HT for reduced liability.  Otherwise, hedge before HT for an acceptable loss if 0-0 is not covered.

•  Potential return
• Two 1st half goals would return approx. +190%
• One 1st half goal approx. -15%
• Above stake is weighted heavily towards two 1st half goals and can be adjusted depending on personal preference and aggression

Trading offers many opportunities to profit and reduce losses beyond outright betting however, indecisiveness can be costly.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders, to become a successful trader.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie