Premier Trade Wigan v Arsenal

I should have known better than to trade the reliably unreliable Liverpool last weekend but I still stand by the statistical evidence that supported the trade choice - all of the value was in the unders market and it wasn't like I was backing Liverpool (other than with cover bets).  Still, I'm sure the biggest Liverpool sceptic didn't see Villa taking a 3-0 lead. 

Despite the result landing outside of the target scores, the bank only took a hit of approximately -1%.  Given that the trade was hedged in favour of Under 2.5 goals, I didn't indulge in the usual 0-0 scalp as all of the low scores were covered.  However, at 0-2 I was exposed in the correct score market.  0-3 was available at odds of 19 and 2-2 at the horrendous price of 5s (another example of the blind faith in Liverpool I assume).  I covered the 0-3 at this point which meant I could wait for another goal as 1-2 was already backed pre-match.  Villa's third came very soon after the interval so I looked for cover in the U/O 4.5 goals market - once the market settled I layed the O4.5 which was trading at 1.8 and scalped this right up until about the 80th minute leaving all the green on the unders side.   There was an opportunity at this point to hedge for scratch overall, but I was quite happy to risk a small loss for no further goals.  Of course, Liverpool added a late consolation and the trade made a loss of 22% of the original stake.

On to this weekend's trade...

Wigan v Arsenal

The festive fixtures begin with a lunchtime kick-off at the DW Stadium where Wigan entertain Arsenal.   I would expect plenty of support in Over 2.5 goals for this fixture especially given that the last four encounters between the two have all involved 3+ goals.  Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.72 but I'm looking towards the 1st half to deliver extra value and a potentially bigger return.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum with Arsenal (W1 D1 L4) v (W3 D2 L1)
• Over 2.5 goals expectation based on games involving Wigan this season is 71-78%
• Respective Home and Away results this season have seen 0-0 HT on 2/18 occasions
• High expectancy of 1st goal before 20 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): D v A
• Away win represents >10% value in both Ht & FT markets
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 63%, Over 3.5 goals is 47%
• Expectation of 1st half being highest scoring is 42% (11% value)
• Over 1.5 1st half goals expectation is 58% (18% value)

Trade:

• Entry

• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 in Half Time Score market for 30% stake
• Dutch 2-0,1-1 & 0-2 in Half Time Score market for the remaining 70% stake

•  Exit
• Hedge after 2nd goal to either remove liability or for a profit across all scores

• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• Over 2.5 1st half goals - this is not a problem if you hedge after the 2nd goal
• Half time 0-0 - scalp 0-0 in the Correct Score market and hedge across all other scores at HT for reduced liability.  Otherwise, hedge before HT for an acceptable loss if 0-0 is not covered.

•  Potential return
• Two 1st half goals would return approx. +190%
• One 1st half goal approx. -15%
• Above stake is weighted heavily towards two 1st half goals and can be adjusted depending on personal preference and aggression

Trading offers many opportunities to profit and reduce losses beyond outright betting however, indecisiveness can be costly.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders, to become a successful trader.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie

Premier League Trades 8 Dec 2012

Below are a couple of the Premier League games I am going to trade today.  I intend to put up at least one trade each weekend to demonstrate how I apply the trading techniques I have developed at The Sports Trading Academy to matches which are selected on the back of my own analysis and that provided by Betform Pro.  Each week, I also hope to analyse the previous week’s trade.

If you are keen to get into trading or an existing trader who wants to develop further, The Sports Trading Academy is a great community in which to learn from experienced professional traders, improve your trading skills and increase your overall profitability.  Most sports are traded using a wide range of strategies to suit all styles.  They currently offer a trial for 1 month atthe price of £10.

Good luck if you choose to follow, and if you have any questions feel free to get in touch.

All the best

Ronnie

Arsenal v WBA

Trade drivers:

• ·      Arsenal odds on favourite although momentum with WBA (W4,D0,L2) compared to Arsenal (W1,D3,L2)

• ·         64% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective Home and Away season form

• ·         67-76% chance of BTTS ‘yes’ based on respective Home and Away season long and recent form

• ·         Expected goals 2.17 v 1.95 therefore high expectation of Over 2.5 goals

• ·         Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro); Grade A&BvC

o   Arsenal not won in 3/3 against grade C this season however won 6 of 7 before this recent run

o   Home scored / Away conceded >1.5 goals (70%) against respective graded sides in last 20 games combined, however only 10% have seen >3.5 home goals

o   Expected Away team to score <1.5 goals 80-90%

Trade:

• ·         Entry:

o   Pre-match dutch of 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1 in correct score (CS) market for 65% of total stake

o   Pre-match lay of Arsenal in match odds market for liability totalling remaining stake (35%)

• ·         Exit:

o   Hedge / close trade when 2-0 or 2-1 lands, whichever is first

o   If the trade goes against you, take a loss / smaller profit early as any indecisiveness will be costly.  Decide on an acceptable liability and stick to it

• ·         Dangers & possible mitigating in-play moves:

o   1-0, 3-2 & AUQ

o   If WBA take the lead back 3-2 to cover overall stake

o   Scalp 1-0 and AUQ to cover / reduce CS liability

Post match assessment:

• Straight forward trade, Arsenal won 2-0: +86% return (after commission)

Sunderland v Chelsea

Trade drivers:

• ·         Similar momentum with Sunderland (W1,D1,L4) compared to Chelsea (W0,D4,L2)

• ·         38-45% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective season long form

• ·         Expected Home Win 17-25%

• ·         Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro); Grade CvA

o   < 2.5 goals at odds of 1.9 gives approx. 10% value

o   Only 16% of respective graded matches have seen 4 goals or more

Trade:

• ·         Entry:

o   Pre-match back of under 2.5 goals for 80% of total stake

o   Pre-match dutch of 2-1,1-2,0-3 in CS market for remaining stake (20%)

• ·         Exit:

o   Exit if / when 2^nd goal is scored

o   Depending on when goals arrive this trade could possibly be left to run

Post match assessment:

•      The trade got off to a bad start with an early Chelsea goal, but it wasn't to the panic stations as the exit was always the 2nd goal.  Unfortunately this came on the stroke of HT.  HT provided some thinking time and I was tempted to spend some of the Under 2.5 potential on backing AUQ.  I didn't which was a shame as Chelsea scored immediately after the re-start.
•       Trade closed at HT for -35% return (after commission)