Premier Trade: Chelsea v Arsenal

Unfortunately, the entry point for last weekend's premier trade didn't arrive as the first goal was scored on 18 min.  Our entry was to be on 20 mins if the score was 0-0, so it was very frustrating that the first goal was scored 2 minutes earlier.   However, I will take comfort that the analysis was pretty much spot on.  

I gather some followers mistook last weekend's trade as a Back bet of Over 1.5 goals on 20 mins (approximate odds of 1.4).  While this bet would have been the opening position taken (in fact a lay of Under 1.5 at odds of approximately 3.5), the intention was always to exit the trade if, and when, our stake was equal to the 'red'.  For example, for a lay for a stake of £10 (liability of £25) at 3.5, the exit would have been when the under 1.5 odds reached half of those odds, so 1.75.  Note that, because of the exit point, the true liability is £10 not the initial £25 and assuming the odds for under 1.5 don't reach 1.75 (because 2 goals have been scored), the win is also £10.  In effect, this trade is creating an even money bet that 2 goals will arrive between 20 and 70ish mins (if you don't green up or remove liability after the 1st goal of course).  Anyway, I hope that explains last weeks trade, on to this weekend's premier trade...

Super Sunday begins with Chelsea entertaining Arsenal at the Bridge, a game in which both sides will be feeling the pressure to secure 3 points.  It will take major slip-ups on both sides of Manchester for Chelsea or Arsenal to mount a title challenge now given the inconsistencies shown by both sides so far this season.  However, if either side still has ambitions for the title, this is a game that they simply have to win... we could be in for a classic!

Trade Drivers:

• Similar momentum (W4 D1 L1) v (W4 D1 L1)
• iFB expected goals 1.82 v 1.59
• Only 1 in last 10 Head to Heads (H2H) in the EPL have gone under 1.5 goals
• Expectation of 1st goal being 30-45 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): A v A
• Over 1.5 goals expectation is 82%, Under 3.5 goals is 71%
• 1st half <1.5 goals expectation is 65%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 for 10% of stake
• Dutch 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 for 25% of stake, and
• Dutch 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3 for remaining 65% of stake
• The P/L across the book should read approx.
• 0 goals: -100%
• 1 goal: -30%
• 2 goals: +10%
• 3 goals: +190%
• 4+ goals: -100%
•  Exit
• Hedge after the 3rd goal
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• An early 2nd goal - ideally we only want 1 first half goal at most, however, if we get 2 goals before half time, close the trade for a loss or take cover in Over 3.5.  Alternatively, the more advanced trader might like to combine this trade with my HT12 trade as described in an earlier post here
• 4+ goals - this is only a danger if you don't hedge after the 3rd goal
• Ideally we want the 3rd goal to arrive as late in the game as possible for maximum profit.  However, if the 3rd goal arrives with say 25 mins remaining, consider spending some of the green available on laying the current score or covering the over 3.5 / 4.5 markets (only if you feel more goals are to expected based on how the game is unfolding).

I will be on twitter and in The Sports Trading Academy chat room if you have any questions.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie