Premier Trade: Man Utd v Liverpool

Although not strictly a derby, games between these two sides are often as fierce and competitive as they come and this should be no different.   Given the form of the two sides recently, it is no wonder that the support in the markets is for plenty of goals following a total of 50 goals across each of their last 6 EPL games, 4.17 goals per game average.  Coupled with this, the last three fixtures between the two sides have finished 2-1.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum with Utd (W5 D1 L0) v (W4 D0 L2)
• 2 in 18 respective Home and Away games have gone Under 1.5 goals this season with only one 0-0 scoreline
• Last 10 Head to Heads (H2H) in the EPL have gone over 1.5 goals
• 3 of last 4 H2H have been 0-0 at half time, and in the game that seen a goal before HT, this was scored after 30 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): A v B
• Over 1.5 goals expectation is 83%, Over 2.5 goals is 61%
• 0-0 HT score, expectation is 39%
• Expectation of 1st goal being after 25 mins is 61%

Trade:

• Entry
• Lay Under 1.5 goals after 20 mins if still 0-0 for 100% stake or the full amount you are willing to risk
•  Exit
• If no goal, exit when loss equals 100% stake - this will be when the back price is half the lay price taken, usually be between 60 - 70 mins
• After the first goal there are a number of options depending on how the game is unfolding and attitude to risk
•  Hedge for a profit on both outcomes after the 1st goal
• Remove the liability after the 1st goal to leave a free bet on Over 1.5 goals
• Wait for the 2nd goal for 100% profit or until loss equals 100%
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake (so long as the recommended exit point is not missed, otherwise the liability could be much greater!)
• If confident with scalping, securing a free bet on 0-0 in the Correct Score market will allow you to stay in the trade longer while waiting for the 1st goal

Trading offers many opportunities to profit and reduce losses beyond outright betting however, indecisiveness can be costly.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders, to become a successful trader.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie