Over the past few months I have developed a couple of football betting strategies which have shown great results when paper traded and back tested. I don’t want to delve into the guiding principles which inform the selections made, but each strategy is built on statistical trends which have been consistently demonstrated in the Premier League over past seasons.
You will sometimes hear that information on past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results – a vague statement which does not instil confidence. However, the alternative to educated informed betting is placing your stake on an emotion or gut instinct. In my experience informed bets have been far more profitable than the emotional wager, a trend consistent with the most profitable gamblers - the bookies who invest huge resources into statistical models to price their books and ensure they have the edge (well most of the time anyway!).
iFT Over 2.5 Goals Strategy
The iFT Over 2.5 Goals Strategy focuses on backing over 2.5 goals in matches where neither team is the overwhelming favourite thus it avoids those clashes where one team is tempted to play for a draw, play for damage limitation or play for the chance of a match winning counter attack. Paper tested back to the start of the 2010/11 season; iFTovers has a yield of 32% when staked for a set target profit.
iFT Draw Strategy
The iFT Draw Strategy involves backing the draw when certain statistical conditions are met. The best returns have been seen by backing the iFT draw selections with level stakes. Doing so over the last 3 seasons would have seen a yield of 11%, although for the current 11/12 season the selections have achieved a 29% yield. The strategy was developed having heard of the success of Pete Nordsted’s Draw Master Service and Pete describes the benefits of backing the draw here. To summarise, the draw often offers value due to the preference of most punters to bet on a win. Also, the odds available mean you only have to find a winner in 1 out of 3 selections which, with an occurence of typically 25-30% in the Premier League and good research, is very achievable.
It’s been a while since I have posted on the blog, the reality being that maintaining a blog site alongside analysing the stats necessary to inform bets is more time consuming than I had anticipated. Understandably, it’s the blog that has been neglected as it is the number crunching that affects betting profits. I will try to post as much as time allows, but more likely when there is an interesting discussion to be had. To keep up-to-date with current thoughts, tips and discussion you can find us on twitter @iFootballTips but in future I will post selections for the Over 2.5 Goals and Draw strategies here on the blog as well as a regular update on how they are performing. Good luck if you choose to follow...
English Premier League Selections – Weekend 14/15th January 2012
Over 2.5 picks – WestBrom/Norwich
Draws – Villa/Everton and WestBrom/Norwich
As always, look for the best odds available to maximise returns.
