While exploring where the value lies in this weekend’s top 4
Premier League clash I opened up the Betform Pro research tool to understand
generally how all top 4 sides perform against each other (Grade A v Grade
A). The following screenshot analyses
all of the HT and FT results since the 2009/10 season a total of 51 matches.
Interestingly, for a group of teams so closely matched in
strengths, the occurrence of the FT draw is surprisingly low at 18%. Typically, the draw in the EPL has an
occurrence of 30% over the course of season.
Here, it can be seen that between Grade A sides the occurrence drops significantly. For such fixtures, the break even odds for the
draw would need to be 5.67 if backing the draw, however, the odds are more
likely to be between 3.5 and 4. Also,
the Home side won the match on 53% of occasions compared to a league average of
approximately 45%. This suggests that
backing the home side at odds above 1.89 offers a value bet. The FT draw odds for this weekend’s Grade A
clash are 3.5 and the odds for the home win are evens (2.0) suggesting plenty
of value on the lay side of the draw and in backing the home side. However, before getting too excited and
blindly jumping on what initially appear to be value bets, it is important to
consider how each team contributes to these general observations. In particular, we need to understand how Man
City and Chelsea, who meet this afternoon, perform in such Grade A match-ups.
The above screenshot is taken from Betfrom Pro’s pre-matchquery tool and compares Man City at home v Grade A sides and Chelsea away to
Grade A sides. The value on offer by the
best available odds is highlighted in the V% column; blue indicating a value
bet and pink highlighting a lack of value.
Straight away you can see that the generalised trend regarding the likelihood
of the home win is not supported by this fixture (the occurrence of the home
win being 44%). However, the draw
appears to conform to the overall A v A trend although, for me, at -4% there is not enough
value to consider getting involved in a lay bet. The combined effect of the lack of value in
the home win and draw is that Chelsea offer value in the away win. However, please do not be mistaken that I am promoting
the Chelsea win today, I always use Betform Pro to support other observations and
analysis and, given that Chelsea have been far from convincing lately, I will
not be taking this bet.
So, what’s the point of this post? Well, we can take away two observations to
consider for future matches between the Premier League’s elite.
1. The occurrence of the draw (18%) is significantly
low compared to the league average and therefore offers the potential for value
on the lay side. However, Man City at home
to Grade A has resulted in a draw on 30% of occasions which is significantly
higher than the observed average. This
suggests there is even more value on the lay side of the draw when the home
team is another of the Grade A teams.
2. The occurrence of the home win is 53% therefore
requires odds of greater than 1.89 for a value bet, quite common between
closely matched teams. However, Man City’s
average on this side of the market pulls the overall average down, which means the
opposite is the case when an/other Grade A team/s play at home.
One final observation to make, and one that may be of
interest to the pre-match or in-play draw layers: Of all of the Grade A v Grade A matches
observed, 2/3rd of draws have finished 0-0 and the first goal has
always been scored before the 70th min – something to bear in mind
if the game is still 0-0 after 70 mins and you are considering laying the draw or 0-0.
Betform Pro allows users to interrogate various scenarios
such as how a certain team has performed at home not only against all teams but
against similar grades/abilities of teams they are due to play. Betform Pro covers the major European leagues
and is currently available to trial free for a month.
All the best,
Ronnie
