English Premier League, Conference, Serie A and Le Championnat Tips 31 March 2012

iFootball Betting Tips has been attracting some welcome attention of late so I thought I would provide an overview of my approaches in deciding my selections.

Every selection is the result of detailed statistical analysis and in no way represents any personal feelings or hunches.  To summarise, this analysis goes somewhat further than just comparing the recent form but in addition considers attacking / defensive strengths, motivations and the perceived likelihood of an outcome (as described by bookmakers’ odds).  Consideration of bookies’ odds is very important to my approach not just for the sake of finding value but in order to take advantage of the vast resources that go into compiling them.

As for the staking plan, I only bet what I can afford to lose. Despite my strategies demonstrating profitability when back tested over as many as 3-5 seasons I don’t get carried away and lose sight of this.  My betting bank is modest and probably reflective of the average punter.  While many tipsters recommend point stakes I advertise my stakes in monetary terms.  The reason for this is that I have tested my strategies against various staking plans to find the plan which delivers the maximum return.  For me, that usually involves staking a percentage of the bank.  If you do choose to follow any of my selections and would prefer to stake differently just apply a factor to my stakes / target profit which you are comfortable with.  Alternatively, you can follow my selections with confidence if your preference is for level stakes as back testing with this staking method has shown a good return also.

Good luck wherever you decide to place your stakes and feel free to get in touch - I welcome any feedback and I’m keen to hear if you follow any of my strategies.

Anyway, an update of profit for 2012 and this weekend’s selections...

Profit / Loss by bet type (as of 30/03/12)

Mine’s a Scotch – Home Win

Rennes / Lyon                        £5 stake     - lost

Bologna / Palermo                 £5 stake     - lost

Cagliari / Atalanta                  £5 stake     - WON

Over 1.5 goals strategy

Fulham / Norwich     stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Wigan / Stoke            stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Wolves / Bolton         stake for £1.90 target profit    - WON

Above treble              stake £3                                    - WON

Over 2.5 goals strategy

Wolves / Bolton         stake for £4.30 target profit     - WON

Fulham / Norwich     stake for £4.30 target profit     - WON

Under 2.5 goals strategy

Cambridge / Wrexham         stake for target profit £5.94     - WON

Catania / AC Milan                stake for target profit £5.94     - WON

All the best

Ronnie.

As always, shop around for the best odds and only bet what you can afford to lose.  Although quick big wins are great, the above strategies are aimed at steadily increasing the betting bank and making long term profit.  And of course, you must be over 18 years of age to gamble.

English Premier League, Serie A and La Liga Tips 24/25 March 2012

Lots of picks for the weekend, particularly in the Over 2.5 goals market, and I’m hoping to build on mid-week success which seen 5 out of the 6 picks come in...

Mine’s a Scotch – Home Win

Vallecano / Villarreal              £5 stake     - lost

Over 1.5 goals strategy

Chelsea / Spurs         stake for £1.90 target profit     - lost

Bolton / Blackburn   stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Norwich / Wolves      stake for £1.90 target profit    - WON

Above treble              stake £3     - lost

Over 2.5 goals strategy

Chelsea / Spurs         stake for £4.27 target profit     - lost

Swansea / Everton    stake for £4.27 target profit     - lost

Sunderland / QPR     stake for £4.27 target profit     - WON

Norwich / Wolves      stake for £4.27 target profit     - WON

WBA / Newcastle      stake for £4.30 target profit     - WON

Under 2.5 goals strategy

Cesena / Parma         stake for target profit £5.83     - lost

Profit / Loss by bet type (as of 23/03/12)

All the best

Ronnie.

As always, shop around for the best odds and only bet what you can afford to lose.  Although quick big wins are great, the above strategies are aimed at steadily increasing the betting bank and making long term profit.  And of course, you must be over 18 years of age to gamble.

English Premier League, Conference and La Liga Betting Tips 20/21 March 2012

Mine’s a Scotch – Home Win

#minesascotch is 3 games old and the P/L currently stands at -£4.81.  Under the conditions of the square root staking plan tonight’s bet is for just the initial stake of £5.

Osasuna / Getafe      £5 stake     - lost

Over 1.5 goals strategy

Blackburn / Sunderland                   stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Man City / Chelsea                stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Over 2.5 goals strategy

Blackburn / Sunderland       stake for £4.07 target profit     - WON

Man City / Chelsea                stake for £4.07 target profit     - WON

Under 2.5 goals strategy

Tamworth / Kidderminster              stake for target profit £5.28     - WON

Profit / Loss by bet type

English Premier League, Serie A and European Tips 17th March 2012

In recent weeks I have been keeping track of the profit and loss of all my tips here on the blog using separate tables for the various types of bet.  Keeping track of so many tables has become quite time consuming so I am attempting to streamline it.  At the end of this post is a table of profit and loss for all tips since the new year.  In future, I will publish a table for the calendar month we are in highlighting the P/L for that month along with an overall P/L and yield.  I will also advertise each pick with stake or target profit details.

Mine’s a Scotch

While reading a few betting articles during the week I came across a couple of things that I found interesting / new to me.  The first was the term ‘scotch’... I’ve drunk a few and ate a handful of the eggs but never heard of a scotch bet, which apparently refers to an even money bet.

The other thing I only came across recently was the ‘square root’ staking plan.  I’m always on the lookout for new and unfamiliar staking plans as experience has taught me that profitability can be significantly improved with the right plan.  To explain it briefly, the plan involves staking to level / percentage stakes until in profit when the square root of the profit is then added to the initial stake.  For example, if your level stake is £5 and it wins at evens then your next bet is £7.24 (your original £5 + the square root of your winnings, √£5 = £2.24).  Sounds like hassle but I’ve tested this on past bets which were priced at around evens and if I had have adopted this plan on those bets my returns would have been almost 3 times greater.  In effect, what the square root staking plan does is take advantage of winning runs by being aggressive when in profit and cautious when losing.

So, for a bit of fun I’m going to combine some ‘scotch picks’ with the square root staking plan and see what happens.  I’ll be looking for fixtures to tip at around evens or slightly better which I’ll post on the blog and on Twitter @iFootballTIPS #minesascotch

On to this weekend’s tips...

Over 1.5 goals strategy

Wigan / WBA             stake for £1.90 target profit     - WON

Over 2.5 goals strategy

Fulham / Swansea    stake for £4.15 target profit     - WON

Newcastle / Norwich   stake for £4.36 target profit     - lost

Under 2.5 goals strategy

Parma / Milan                        stake for target profit £5.68     - WON

Fiorentina / Juventus           stake for target profit £5.68     - lost

Mine’s a Scotch – Home Win

St Etienne / Lyon       £5 stake     - lost

Rayo Vallecano / Betis          £5 stake     - WON

Bologna / Chievo       £6.17 stake     - lost

Profit / Loss so far

All the best


Ronnie


As always, shop around for the best odds and only bet what you can afford to lose.  Although quick big wins are great, the above strategies are aimed at steadily increasing the betting bank and making long term profit.  And of course, you must be over 18 years of age to gamble.

English Premier League and Conference Tips 13th March 2012

A mid-week post on the blog is a very rare occurrence as finding the time is quite difficult so please excuse me if tonight’s entry is on the light side.  The purpose is just to publish tonight’s tips but more importantly keep on top of tracking the profit and loss of the strategies.  With that in mind, as it is still early days with regards the Over 2.5s and Under 2.5s strategies ignore the yield for the time being; yield is not a worthwhile measure of success until the sample size is large enough that the outcome of one bet does not cause a huge swing in its value.

 

Over 2.5 goals strategy

The strategy has been on a poor run of form since the slight refinements but I have enough confidence from the earlier edition to stick with it and enough experience to expect the occasional sequence of losses.  Tonight’s qualifying selection...

Liverpool / Everton

Under 2.5 goals strategy

Tonight’s qualifying selections are:

Mansfield / Fleetwood Town

Ebbsfleet / Wrexham

As always, shop around for the best odds and only bet what you can afford to lose.  Although quick big wins are great, the above strategies are aimed at steadily increasing the betting bank and making long term profit.

For other ad-hoc tips and reaction keep an eye out on Twitter @iFootballTIPS

All the best

Ronnie.