Arsenal v
Newcastle
- Trade drivers:
- · Arsenal odds on favourite and momentum with them (W3,D2,L1) compared to Newcastle (W2,D0,L4). However, a straight back of Arsenal at 1.40 offers no value (53-58% chance)
- · 49-53% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective season long form
- · 61-69% chance of BTTS ‘yes’ based on respective Home and Away season long and recent form
- · Expected goals (iFB formula) 2.11 v 1.41 therefore high expectation of Over 2.5 goals & BTTS ‘yes’
- · Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status; Grade A v C
o
Arsenal
not won in 3/4 against grade C this season however won 6 of 7 before this
recent run
o
Home scored
/ Away conceded >1.5 goals is 67% against respective graded sides in last 20
games combined, however only 6% have seen >3.5 home goals
o
Expected
Away team to score <1.5 goals 78% and >0.5 goals 72%
- Trade:
- · Entry:
o
Pre-match
dutch of 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1 in correct score (CS) market for 75% of total stake
o
Pre-match
lay of Arsenal in match odds market for liability totalling remaining stake (25%)
- · Exit:
o
Hedge /
close trade when 2-0 or 2-1 lands, whichever is first
o
If the
trade goes against you, take a loss / smaller profit early as any
indecisiveness will be costly. Decide on an acceptable liability and
stick to it
- · Dangers & possible mitigating in-play moves:
o
1-0, 3-2
& AUQ
o
If Newcastle
take a 1st half lead back 3-2 to cover overall stake
o
In case
of early goals, you may wish to spend some potential in U/O or Correct Score 2
markets
- Scalp 1-0 and AUQ to cover / reduce CS liability
For more trading strategies and guidance check out The Sports Trading Academy.
