EPL Stats Snapshots 6 October

Following on from the earlier post, stats for a selection of this afternoon's Premier League games...

Match Stat Snapshot Man City v Sunderland

Below is a stats snapshot for the Man City v Sunderland game which kicks off this lunchtime.  I hope to post as many of these as time allows for the major European leagues.


These snapshots compare the full, home and away, and form records for the respective teams...


Goals - comparison of average goals scored / conceded to determine an expectant number of goals in the match


Over 2.5 goals - a frequency analysis of the occurrence of over 2.5 goals


BTTS - a frequency analysis of the occurrence of clean sheets / failure of a team to score to determine the probability of both teams scoring


Goal supremacy - comparison of the respective home /away form with the overall record.  A positive percentage indicates a stronger attack at home / away.  A negative percentage indicates a tighter defence at home / away.


Shooting - a description of the respective shooting accuracy (% of total shots that are on target) and conversion rate (% of shots on target that result in a goal).  These figures may be particularly useful for in-play betting / trading.


H X A - a comparison of results to identify an expectant probability of a result


Prediction & Confidence - this is my own measure of the likelihood of a particular result.  'Home' or 'Away' identifies the favoured team while the number indicates the level of confidence.  A negative confidence number indicates that there is no correlation between the short and long term form of the two teams while a positive number points to a correlation.  The scale of this measure has the potential to be quite large but based on tests so far in Sweden >+100 appears to be significant.  I'll be observing these confidence numbers over the next few weeks as I don't expect them to be particularly reliable until the season matures further.


I hope you find these snapshots useful.