Volume 2 of the Goal List report is now available and, packed with stats, analysis and strategies, it suggests plenty of options for trading the goal list selections. 500 games and over 1500 goals have been analysed to identify where the edge lies in Goal List fixtures. However, not all of the trends and strategies made the cut and into the final draft of the Goal List Report. Here's one such strategy and the supporting analysis which, over the life of the Goal List, boasts a +16% yield...
Lay Under 1.5 goals in-play (English & Dutch fixtures)
A popular strategy amongst football traders is to lay Under 1.5 goals in-play at a chosen point while the match is still 0-0. If you are not familiar with this approach there is more to it than simply taking an odds-on Over 1.5 goals bet in-play.
First of all, the purpose of taking this market on in-play is that a vast amount of games do not see goals early in a game. The Dutch Eredivisie and English Premier Leagues experience goals in the first 15 minutes of games on 13.5% and 12.5% of occasions, respectively In fact, even the goal list selections have only resulted in a goal within the first 15 mins of a match on 32% of occasions. While this is a very impressive stat (and the goal list report details a fantastic strategy to benefit from this) early goals are rare and, with the right match selection, you can find some great value waiting in-play to place this bet.
Secondly, the staking strategy makes this different to a delayed bet of 2 or more goals. When we enter the trade, we do so laying Under 1.5 goals for a set stake e.g if we lay for a stake of £20 at odds of 3.0 our profit and loss scenarios will be +£20 on Over 1.5 goals and -£40 on Under 1.5 goals. The important thing to understand when entering this trade is that -£40 is not our true liability, instead it should be equivalent to our stake, so -£20. The reason being is that our exit point, should the trade go against us, is at half of the odds of the original lay price, so in this example at odds of 1.50 on the Under 1.5 side. If the odds half before a goal is scored we back the new Under 1.5 price at twice the original stake, so £40. In this situation, our profit loss scenario is now -£20 on Under 1.5 goals and -£20 on Over 1.5 goals.
Should a goal arrive before the exit point we are presented with three choices:
- Back under 1.5 goals for a stake that will result in profit on both sides of the trade (the green screen)
- Remove your original liability by laying Over 1.5 goals to leave a free bet on Over 1.5 goals
- Do nothing and wait for a second goal before the planned exit point, which will now be later in the match
You will see that what we are really betting on is that the two goals we are after will actually arrive within a given time frame (or at least that the first goal will).
So, how are you most likely to profit using this technique to trade the goal list selections?
We lay Under 1.5 goals on 30 minutes when the game is 0-0 (English and Dutch fixtures). This is slightly later than most traders might normally look to lay but the stats support increased profitability when trading the goal list if you do so (and it means you are still in the trade later into the game when the occurrence of goals is more likely). Entering on 30 minutes would mean your 0-0 exit point is around 70 minutes. If a goal is scored in this time and you decided to stay in the trade it is likely you would be able to do so until 84/85 minutes (again approximate and depending on the match).
We consider the stats in the top two leagues in Holland and England, simply because they provide a suitable sample size. The goal list report goes into detail with stats, tables and graphs but in this instance I will just present the trend, and that is that in these two countries, 60% of goal list qualifiers which remained goalless on 30 minutes seen the 1st goal scored within 70 minutes and the second before 85 minutes. If the latter of the options had been followed after the first goal (i.e. wait for the second goal) this would have resulted in a yield of +16% (inclusive of 5% Betfair commission) to level stakes from 116 matches. Unfortunately, the data isn't available to back test the profitability if either of the other two options were taken after the first goal.
I hope this post provides food for thought when trading the goal list, even it it wasn't quite worthy of the final report. Thanks for your interest.
Al the best
Ronnie
Post Note added 14th April 2013
Hopefully those of you who follow the goal list got to profit from the above strategy in yesterday evening's Heracles v Groningen match (although you probably lost out on Reading v Liverpool too - I still can't understand how that remained goalless but that's football and we expect losing trades).
I coupled the above strategy with another strategy detailed in Volume 2 of the Goal List report when trading the Heracles v Groningen match. The 1st goal came on 62 minutes, but the market had traded in such a way that the exit point on the Under 1.5 goals lay would have been on 65 minutes (5 minutes earlier than might usually be expected, as described above). There are various reasons why the exit might vary which include the goal expectation of a match and how the match unfolds in-play.
Anyway, this observation has prompted me to carry out a sensitivity analysis on the above strategy and, in particular, understand how the profit would have been affected if the exit point at 0-0 was earlier, on 65 minutes.
The sample size is the same as the entry point hasn't changed but, as you would expect, the number of losing trades increases. However, this does not have a significant effect on the profitability of the strategy based on past goal list selections. The success rate falls to 58.6% but more importantly the yield only reduces to 14.3% (still a very nice return).
Opportunities to trade this strategy will come along infrequently (approximately 1 in 5 games). When trading the goal list I would recommend that you do not necessarily try to trade every selection, but instead, look for the opportunities as the arise - these might be taking a pre-match position or waiting to trade in-play. Obviously, those who have invested in Volume 2 of the report will be able to identify a greater number of opportunities.
Thanks for reading
Ronnie.
