Premier League Tips 22.10.11

Our attention has flittered across the various English leagues in recent weeks, with mixed fortunes, but today our selections return with a focus on the Premier League and some really interesting ties.

Tip: Bolton v Sunderland    Over 2.5 goals

Bolton entertain Sunderland at the Reebok today in a match that both managers will see as must win.  Bolton are in desperate need of points after tough opening fixtures and will be keen to build on last weekend’s impressive win against Wigan.  Equally, Sunderland need to put to bed a poor run of form that extends back to the start of 2011 and Steve Bruce will be eager to give the Mackem faithful something to be optimistic about.  Looking at the two teams, both will be suffering from a lack of confidence although there is little difference in them compared to the corresponding fixture early May last season when Sunderland ran out 2-1 winners.  On this occasion Bolton were available to back at 1.79 which makes today’s price of 2.3 look big.  As our article ‘Where’s the Premier League value...’ a couple of weeks ago suggested, Botlon’s early season defeats against 5 of the top 6 would see value in backing Bolton and it may be one to take on today.

However, I think given the importance of this game to both sides it is a difficult one to call especially as Sunderland have won on the last 4 occasions.  I think both sides will attack this one with the mindset that a point is no good to them in a game that is winnable.  With this in mind, and given the number of games these sides have gone over 2.5 goals in this season (13 out of 16) backing Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9 looks like good value.

Tip: Aston Villa v WBA        Over 2.5 goals

In yesterday’s blog I looked at the trends in derby matches over the last 5 seasons and the analysis identified potential value in the over 2.5 goals bet with average odds of 1.89 required see value.  In today’s derby, Aston Villa v West Brom is currently available @ 2.12 to go over 2.5 goals.  Villa have been a lot tighter at the back this season and by their form alone predicting the overs / unders is a difficult call.  However, 3 out of 4 of WBA’s away games have gone over and 5 out of the last 6 games between the Villa and the Baggies have finished with the 2-1 scoreline.  All considered, I’m going with overs in this one.

All the best

Ronnie.

How do derby matches impact on results?

This weekend sees three derby matches in the Premier League.  For most fans, the biggest fixture in the football calendar is that against their local rival; every teams’ cup final.  But, what effect does the boiling pot that is derby day have on the outcome of a match?  I’ve had a look at the stats for the last 5 Premier League seasons to see how these compare to the wider trends...

First of all, a look at how derby games compare to the final result:

The first thing to notice is that the spread in results isn’t too dissimilar between derby games and the league as a whole.  The subtle differences are that the home advantage doesn’t appear to carry as much influence and the likelihood of a draw is increased.  There is not much difference between away wins but the difference in home wins and draws is significant therefore expect to find value when laying the home or backing the draw.

I must admit, I have tended to shy away from backing the outright result in a derby game, unless the odds on offer have presented exceptional value and I have expected the fancied result not to be effected by the drama that surrounds the derby game.  However, one bet I have profited on in derby games is the under / over 2.5 goals market.  I have always suspected that the derby charged atmosphere leads to a more open game and more often goals.

You can see from the stats that the overs are significantly more common than the unders in derby games, compared to the 50:50 split throughout the league.  What this means is that value can be found with average odds of 1.89 or better for overs in derby games compared with 2.01 for the league as a whole.

Back to this weekend’s derby games and overs in Aston Villa v West Brom is currently available @ 2.07.  Villa have been a lot tighter at the back this season and by their form alone predicting the overs / unders is a difficult call.  However, 3 out of 4 of WBA’s away games have gone over and 5 out of the last 6 games between the Villa and the Baggies have finished with the 2-1 scoreline.  All considered, I’m going with overs in this one.

Tip: Aston Villa v WBA Over 2.5 goals @ 2.07

All the best
Ronnie. 

Today's Football Betting Tips 15.10.11

The end of the international break sees a return to top flight action and some mouth watering encounters with some interest in the lower leagues too...

Stoke v Fulham

Tip:  Home win @ 2.42

When it comes to comparing form these two sides both resemble Jekyll and Hyde with home results very different to those on the road.  The Britannia is renowned for being a difficult place to get a result as Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd will all testify after visits in recent weeks and this weekend should be no different for a Fulham side that has only picked up 1pt away from home in 3 away games.  Stoke will fancy a win here and at these odds represent real value.

Wigan v Bolton

Tip: Away win @ 3.2 / Bolton Draw no Bet @ 2.25

Bolton have had a start to the new season that no side in the world would appreciate having played 5 of the big 6 already with only Spurs left to play in the first half of the season and as a result prop up the table with 3pts.  Bolton will take heart from their performances in the recent defeats and, up against a Wigan side that lack punch up front and have not picked up points since August, this will be one Owen Coyle has marked as ‘must win’.

Stevenage v Charlton

Tip:  Away win @ 2.6

Charlton went 12 games unbeaten last weekend for the first time since 1927/28 and we fancy them to extend their run further.  Despite a squad which welcomed 19 new faces in the summer Charlton have started well topping the division and they will arrive at Stevenage on the back of 6 wins and a draw away from home.  In comparison, Stevenage have been hit and miss and show the signs of a mid-table finish at best.  Following impressive home wins over Rochdale and Sheff Wed, Stevenage have lost their last four.  This has the potential for a tight game but Charlton represent real value.  The more cautious of you might prefer Charlton @1.83 for the draw no bet.

Southend v Morecombe

Tip: Home win @ 1.95

After an average start Southend have found some rhythm in recent weeks with 5 consecutive wins scoring 13 and conceding 1 in the league and as a result they find themselves topping League 2.  Morecombe have been resilient on the road and remain unbeaten away this season.  However, Morecombe have not won in 4 and I expect Southend, under the guidance of the experienced Paul Sturrock, to record another home win.

Biggest game in world league football... Possibly

The Premier League is back with a bang following the international break with Man Utd travelling to Anfield for the lunchtime kickoff.  This is without doubt one fixture that football fans across the globe look forward to; it is known for delivering action, talking points and is renowned for being a great advert for the game.  All indications are that this one will be no different.

Liverpool come into the game with a fully fit squad and, despite some indifferent performances this season, they are a team who have made vast improvements since the return of the King.  Luis ‘Torres who?’ Suarez has set the Premier League alight and Liverpool can now boast a squad that will believe they can again challenge at the top.

The current champions look to have gone up yet another gear and top of the league with 6 wins in 7 and having scored 24 in the process.  They are a team that look refreshed and hungry for more success with the emergence of academy talent and youthful acquisitions that, so far this season, have shown they have the quality and temperament to deliver at the top level.

Form suggests this game will have goals.  This fixture has gone over 2.5 twice in the last 3 seasons and this season Anfield has seen 2/3 go over while only the defensively brilliant Stoke have prevented all of Utd’s away games from going over.  It has been well publicised that Man Utd have been more open at the back this season and an improved Liverpool side going forward will fancy scoring.  

Many will be predicting both teams to score here today and that bet is currently available @ 1.67, but if you fancy one of the two teams to score twice there is plenty of value in Over 2.5 goals @ evens.  Throw in the fire that comes with the games between these two rivals and the anticipated lightening pace Over 2.5 looks like a good bet.

Tip: Liverpool v Man Utd Over 2.5 goals @ evens.

How to profit betting on international football?

Montenegro vs. England has not long kicked off in what is widely accepted as the Group G decider, Theo Walcott has delivered a rare quality ball into the 6yd box for Young to convert, and ironically I find myself writing the first offering from iFootballTIPS without several bets to keep an enthusiastic eye on...

In recent years I have been minded to avoid the lure of betting on international football, particularly at this late stage in the campaign when many teams have little to play for.  Betting on internationals generally does not sit easy with me and I’m not one to risk any of the betting bank when I’m not confident. 

I don’t like the idea of backing the form of teams that play a handful of games per year and are made up of players who only get together on the pitch for a few days before each match.