How do derby matches impact on results?

This weekend sees three derby matches in the Premier League.  For most fans, the biggest fixture in the football calendar is that against their local rival; every teams’ cup final.  But, what effect does the boiling pot that is derby day have on the outcome of a match?  I’ve had a look at the stats for the last 5 Premier League seasons to see how these compare to the wider trends...

First of all, a look at how derby games compare to the final result:

The first thing to notice is that the spread in results isn’t too dissimilar between derby games and the league as a whole.  The subtle differences are that the home advantage doesn’t appear to carry as much influence and the likelihood of a draw is increased.  There is not much difference between away wins but the difference in home wins and draws is significant therefore expect to find value when laying the home or backing the draw.

I must admit, I have tended to shy away from backing the outright result in a derby game, unless the odds on offer have presented exceptional value and I have expected the fancied result not to be effected by the drama that surrounds the derby game.  However, one bet I have profited on in derby games is the under / over 2.5 goals market.  I have always suspected that the derby charged atmosphere leads to a more open game and more often goals.

You can see from the stats that the overs are significantly more common than the unders in derby games, compared to the 50:50 split throughout the league.  What this means is that value can be found with average odds of 1.89 or better for overs in derby games compared with 2.01 for the league as a whole.

Back to this weekend’s derby games and overs in Aston Villa v West Brom is currently available @ 2.07.  Villa have been a lot tighter at the back this season and by their form alone predicting the overs / unders is a difficult call.  However, 3 out of 4 of WBA’s away games have gone over and 5 out of the last 6 games between the Villa and the Baggies have finished with the 2-1 scoreline.  All considered, I’m going with overs in this one.

Tip: Aston Villa v WBA Over 2.5 goals @ 2.07

All the best
Ronnie.