Our attention has flittered across the various English leagues in recent weeks, with mixed fortunes, but today our selections return with a focus on the Premier League and some really interesting ties.
Tip: Bolton v Sunderland Over 2.5 goals
Bolton entertain Sunderland at the Reebok today in a match that both managers will see as must win. Bolton are in desperate need of points after tough opening fixtures and will be keen to build on last weekend’s impressive win against Wigan. Equally, Sunderland need to put to bed a poor run of form that extends back to the start of 2011 and Steve Bruce will be eager to give the Mackem faithful something to be optimistic about. Looking at the two teams, both will be suffering from a lack of confidence although there is little difference in them compared to the corresponding fixture early May last season when Sunderland ran out 2-1 winners. On this occasion Bolton were available to back at 1.79 which makes today’s price of 2.3 look big. As our article ‘Where’s the Premier League value...’ a couple of weeks ago suggested, Botlon’s early season defeats against 5 of the top 6 would see value in backing Bolton and it may be one to take on today.
However, I think given the importance of this game to both sides it is a difficult one to call especially as Sunderland have won on the last 4 occasions. I think both sides will attack this one with the mindset that a point is no good to them in a game that is winnable. With this in mind, and given the number of games these sides have gone over 2.5 goals in this season (13 out of 16) backing Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9 looks like good value.
Tip: Aston Villa v WBA Over 2.5 goals
In yesterday’s blog I looked at the trends in derby matches over the last 5 seasons and the analysis identified potential value in the over 2.5 goals bet with average odds of 1.89 required see value. In today’s derby, Aston Villa v West Brom is currently available @ 2.12 to go over 2.5 goals. Villa have been a lot tighter at the back this season and by their form alone predicting the overs / unders is a difficult call. However, 3 out of 4 of WBA’s away games have gone over and 5 out of the last 6 games between the Villa and the Baggies have finished with the 2-1 scoreline. All considered, I’m going with overs in this one.
All the best
Ronnie.