Goal List prep: 29th & 30th January 2012

Tuesday 29th January:
19:45 - Bristol City v Watford



Wednesday 30th January:
19:45 - Arsenal v Liverpool

20:00 - Man Utd v Southampton

20:00 - Reading v Chelsea

Goal list prep: Monday 28th January 2013

19:00 - Volendam v Almere City

Goal List Prep: Sunday 27th January 2013

I started posting my prep for @SportsTraderMac's Goal List selections yesterday, and following some good feedback, I will continue to do so going forward.  If you are using the Goal List I strongly recommend reading the Goal List Report which identifies a number of trends to help profit from the selections - hopefully the information presented here will assist in informing your particular betting / trading choice.

Something that struck me from yesterdays pre-match analysis was that one of the correct scores highlighted landed in 5 out of the 7 matches; certainly something to keep an eye on.

11:30 - Bologna v Roma

11:30 - Vitesse v Ajax

16:00 - Rayo Vallecano v Betis

17:00 - Galatasaray v Besiktas

18:00 - Barcelona v Osasuna

Goal List Prep: Saturday 26th January 2013

Regular followers will no doubt have realised that I am a keen follower of @SportsTraderMac (twitter name) and in particular his 'Goal List'.  I got to know 'Mac' through his involvement with The Sports Trading Academy where I have learnt much from him with regards trading.  While I do not know the selection criteria behind the goal list, I have been impressed with the results and in particular the analysis within the first goal list report.

Anyway, I thought I would share some of the stats I consider when deciding whether and how to trade the Goal List selections, focusing on today's games.  The analysis presented here does have its limitations but I still hope you find it of use, which I think you will do, especially if you have read the first goal list report....

1430 – Hannover v Wolsfburg

14:30 - E. Frankfurt v Hoffenheim

15:00 - Bristol City v Ipswich

15:00 - Nottingham Forest v Watford

17:30 - Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen

18:45 - ADO Den Haag v Roda JC

19:45 - Heracles v PSV

Premier Trade: Chelsea v Arsenal

Unfortunately, the entry point for last weekend's premier trade didn't arrive as the first goal was scored on 18 min.  Our entry was to be on 20 mins if the score was 0-0, so it was very frustrating that the first goal was scored 2 minutes earlier.   However, I will take comfort that the analysis was pretty much spot on.  

I gather some followers mistook last weekend's trade as a Back bet of Over 1.5 goals on 20 mins (approximate odds of 1.4).  While this bet would have been the opening position taken (in fact a lay of Under 1.5 at odds of approximately 3.5), the intention was always to exit the trade if, and when, our stake was equal to the 'red'.  For example, for a lay for a stake of £10 (liability of £25) at 3.5, the exit would have been when the under 1.5 odds reached half of those odds, so 1.75.  Note that, because of the exit point, the true liability is £10 not the initial £25 and assuming the odds for under 1.5 don't reach 1.75 (because 2 goals have been scored), the win is also £10.  In effect, this trade is creating an even money bet that 2 goals will arrive between 20 and 70ish mins (if you don't green up or remove liability after the 1st goal of course).  Anyway, I hope that explains last weeks trade, on to this weekend's premier trade...

Super Sunday begins with Chelsea entertaining Arsenal at the Bridge, a game in which both sides will be feeling the pressure to secure 3 points.  It will take major slip-ups on both sides of Manchester for Chelsea or Arsenal to mount a title challenge now given the inconsistencies shown by both sides so far this season.  However, if either side still has ambitions for the title, this is a game that they simply have to win... we could be in for a classic!

Trade Drivers:

• Similar momentum (W4 D1 L1) v (W4 D1 L1)
• iFB expected goals 1.82 v 1.59
• Only 1 in last 10 Head to Heads (H2H) in the EPL have gone under 1.5 goals
• Expectation of 1st goal being 30-45 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): A v A
• Over 1.5 goals expectation is 82%, Under 3.5 goals is 71%
• 1st half <1.5 goals expectation is 65%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 for 10% of stake
• Dutch 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 for 25% of stake, and
• Dutch 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3 for remaining 65% of stake
• The P/L across the book should read approx.
• 0 goals: -100%
• 1 goal: -30%
• 2 goals: +10%
• 3 goals: +190%
• 4+ goals: -100%
•  Exit
• Hedge after the 3rd goal
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• An early 2nd goal - ideally we only want 1 first half goal at most, however, if we get 2 goals before half time, close the trade for a loss or take cover in Over 3.5.  Alternatively, the more advanced trader might like to combine this trade with my HT12 trade as described in an earlier post here
• 4+ goals - this is only a danger if you don't hedge after the 3rd goal
• Ideally we want the 3rd goal to arrive as late in the game as possible for maximum profit.  However, if the 3rd goal arrives with say 25 mins remaining, consider spending some of the green available on laying the current score or covering the over 3.5 / 4.5 markets (only if you feel more goals are to expected based on how the game is unfolding).

I will be on twitter and in The Sports Trading Academy chat room if you have any questions.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie

Premier Trade: Man Utd v Liverpool

Although not strictly a derby, games between these two sides are often as fierce and competitive as they come and this should be no different.   Given the form of the two sides recently, it is no wonder that the support in the markets is for plenty of goals following a total of 50 goals across each of their last 6 EPL games, 4.17 goals per game average.  Coupled with this, the last three fixtures between the two sides have finished 2-1.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum with Utd (W5 D1 L0) v (W4 D0 L2)
• 2 in 18 respective Home and Away games have gone Under 1.5 goals this season with only one 0-0 scoreline
• Last 10 Head to Heads (H2H) in the EPL have gone over 1.5 goals
• 3 of last 4 H2H have been 0-0 at half time, and in the game that seen a goal before HT, this was scored after 30 mins
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): A v B
• Over 1.5 goals expectation is 83%, Over 2.5 goals is 61%
• 0-0 HT score, expectation is 39%
• Expectation of 1st goal being after 25 mins is 61%

Trade:

• Entry
• Lay Under 1.5 goals after 20 mins if still 0-0 for 100% stake or the full amount you are willing to risk
•  Exit
• If no goal, exit when loss equals 100% stake - this will be when the back price is half the lay price taken, usually be between 60 - 70 mins
• After the first goal there are a number of options depending on how the game is unfolding and attitude to risk
•  Hedge for a profit on both outcomes after the 1st goal
• Remove the liability after the 1st goal to leave a free bet on Over 1.5 goals
• Wait for the 2nd goal for 100% profit or until loss equals 100%
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake (so long as the recommended exit point is not missed, otherwise the liability could be much greater!)
• If confident with scalping, securing a free bet on 0-0 in the Correct Score market will allow you to stay in the trade longer while waiting for the 1st goal

Trading offers many opportunities to profit and reduce losses beyond outright betting however, indecisiveness can be costly.  If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders, to become a successful trader.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie