Premier Trade: Stoke v Man Utd

Man Utd go to Stoke on Sunday in what at first glance should be a straight forward victory for the champions elect.  Stoke are on an abysmal run, their form only worsened by Reading while Man Utd are on course to break records in taking back the title.  Historically, Stoke have been a tough test for the EPL's top sides although Man Utd have a good record at the Britannia Stadium.  I expect Man Utd to win in a low scoring game, however Stoke's past results against the division's elite are too hard to ignore, so it is worth keeping the draw on side.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum (W0 D1 L5) v (W5 D0 L1)
• iFB expected total match goals range 2.33 - 2.72
• Last 4 corresponding fixtures finished 1-1, 1-2, 0-2, 0-1
• Comparing performance against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): C v D
• 45% of last 20 combined ended in a draw (20% value)
• Stoke v Grade A seen 8 in 10 end in a draw (6 by the 1-1 scoreline)
• 70% of last 20 combined finished Under 2.5 goals (15% value)

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 0-2, 0-3, 1-1 & 1-2 for 80% of stake
• Dutch 1-0 & 2-1 for 10% of stake
• The Profit / Loss across the book should read approx.
• 0-2, 0-3, 1-1 & 1-2 : +115%
• 1-0 & 2-1: 10%
• All other scores: -100%
•  Exit
• This trade will only go against us with a couple of early goals.  Decide on an acceptable loss (e.g. 50% of stake) and exit at this point.  Personally I will exit if a third goal is scored.
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - you may wish to spend an extra 5% covering 0-0.  Alternatively you may prefer to exit on c.70min
• 0-1 - The trade can be exited for a small win / loss on 70/75 min given the scores that are covered.  If Man Utd take an early lead the 0-1 price will be much higher than the pre-match price and can be backed for a small stake to provide cover.
• Upwards of the target scorelines - consider exiting the trade when a target score is hit or spending some potential on additional scorelines. 

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Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie