Premier Trade: Reading v Southampton

The lunchtime kickoff sees an in form Southampton travel to lowly Reading.  Southampton are all but guaranteed Premier League football next season having beat both Liverpool and Chelsea in recent weeks while Reading will be hoping a change in manager will provide the lift required to make a last ditch attempt to survive relegation.  Reading are at the stage now where they need to have a go at getting out of trouble and Southampton can afford to play their natural game which usually lends itself to a few goals .

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum (W0 D0 L6) v (W3 D1 L2)
• iFB expected goals 1.90 v 1.63
• Combined mean season Over 2.5 occurrence is 61-70%
• Combined average goals / game (last 6) is 3.25
• Comparing performance against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): D v D
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 61%
• BTTS 'Yes' expectation is 65%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 for 70% of stake
• Dutch 0-2 & 2-0 for 20% of stake
• Dutch 0-1 & 1-0 for remaining 10% of stake
• The Profit / Loss across the book should read approx.
• 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 : +185%
• 0-1 & 1-0: -35%
• 0-2 & 2-0: +90%
• All other scores: -100%
•  Exit
• Decide on an acceptable loss (e.g. 50% of stake) and exit at this point if the trade goes against us.
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• 1-1 - this is not too much of a problem until approximately 70mins as the potential profit on the 1-2 & 2-1 scorelines will counteract this risk.  If 1-1 at this stage of the game consider how the game is unfolding and exit accordingly bearing in mind your acceptable loss
• Upwards of the target scorelines - consider greening up or spending some potential on additional scorelines. 

If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie