Below are a couple of the Premier League games I am going to trade
today. I intend to put up at least one
trade each weekend to demonstrate how I apply the trading techniques I have
developed at The Sports Trading Academy to matches which are selected on the
back of my own analysis and that provided by Betform Pro. Each week, I also hope to analyse the
previous week’s trade.
If you are keen to get into trading or an existing trader who wants to
develop further, The Sports Trading Academy is a great community in which to
learn from experienced professional traders, improve your trading skills and increase your
overall profitability. Most sports are
traded using a wide range of strategies to suit all styles. They currently offer a trial for 1 month atthe price of £10.
Good luck if you choose to follow, and if you have any questions feel
free to get in touch.
All the best
Ronnie
Arsenal v WBA
Trade drivers:
- · Arsenal odds on favourite although momentum with WBA (W4,D0,L2) compared to Arsenal (W1,D3,L2)
- · 64% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective Home and Away season form
- · 67-76% chance of BTTS ‘yes’ based on respective Home and Away season long and recent form
- · Expected goals 2.17 v 1.95 therefore high expectation of Over 2.5 goals
- · Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro); Grade A&BvC
o
Arsenal not won in 3/3 against grade C this
season however won 6 of 7 before this recent run
o
Home scored / Away conceded >1.5 goals (70%)
against respective graded sides in last 20 games combined, however only 10%
have seen >3.5 home goals
o
Expected Away team to score <1.5 goals 80-90%
Trade:
- · Entry:
o
Pre-match dutch of 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1 in correct
score (CS) market for 65% of total stake
o
Pre-match lay of Arsenal in match odds market
for liability totalling remaining stake (35%)
- · Exit:
o
Hedge / close trade when 2-0 or 2-1 lands, whichever
is first
o
If the trade goes against you, take a loss /
smaller profit early as any indecisiveness will be costly. Decide on an acceptable liability and stick to
it
- · Dangers & possible mitigating in-play moves:
o
1-0, 3-2 & AUQ
o
If WBA take the lead back 3-2 to cover overall
stake
o
Scalp 1-0 and AUQ to cover / reduce CS liability
Post match assessment:
- Straight forward trade, Arsenal won 2-0: +86% return (after commission)
Sunderland v Chelsea
Trade drivers:
- · Similar momentum with Sunderland (W1,D1,L4) compared to Chelsea (W0,D4,L2)
- · 38-45% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective season long form
- · Expected Home Win 17-25%
- · Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro); Grade CvA
o
< 2.5 goals at odds of 1.9 gives approx. 10%
value
o
Only 16% of respective graded matches have seen
4 goals or more
Trade:
- · Entry:
o
Pre-match back of under 2.5 goals for 80% of
total stake
o
Pre-match dutch of 2-1,1-2,0-3 in CS market for
remaining stake (20%)
- · Exit:
o
Exit if / when 2nd goal is scored
o
Depending on when goals arrive this trade could
possibly be left to run
Post match assessment:
Post match assessment:
- The trade got off to a bad start with an early Chelsea goal, but it wasn't to the panic stations as the exit was always the 2nd goal. Unfortunately this came on the stroke of HT. HT provided some thinking time and I was tempted to spend some of the Under 2.5 potential on backing AUQ. I didn't which was a shame as Chelsea scored immediately after the re-start.
- Trade closed at HT for -35% return (after commission)
No comments:
Post a Comment