Scalping is a trading method used to profit from the movement
of prices in a market by backing or laying at one price, say 18.5, and then laying
at a lower price of 18 or backing at the higher price of 19.0. Much of my football trading involves scalping
of some sort in order to reduce liabilities or maximise returns so I thought I
would provide an example of how I would scalp 0-0 in order to reduce the
liabilities associated with the sort of trade I advertised yesterday, a dutch
of 1-0,0-1 & 2-0,1-1,0-2 in the Half Time Score market (the HT 1
2). I intend to trade Swansea v Man Utd
in this way so I will use this game as an example of how I would scalp in this instance.
First of all, you need to consider the trade that you are
on. The ‘HT 1 2’ is a good strategy for
games with a high goal expectation and in particular those games where you fancy
Over 1.5 1st half goals. Dutching
HT 1-1,2-0,0-2 for 70% stake gives the following...
And then dutching 1-0 & 0-1 for the remaining 30% of
stake...
This leaves the following profit / loss scenarios if left as
a straight dutch bet:
No 1st half goals -100%
One 1st half goal +56.5%
- 70% (stake on 2 goal scores) = -13.5%
Two 1st half goals +227% - 30% (stake on 1 goal scores) = +197%
However, as I will be trading this game, I will
hedge after the second goal for profit on all scores. One goal in the 1st half is
obviously a danger, although -13.5% loss is acceptable to me. Of more of a concern is No 1st
half goal which would result in the loss of the full stake. I could scalp the 0-0 Half time score
although I would need to use huge stakes in order to reduce the liability when
the tick size is 0.05. Instead, I look
to the Correct Score market which at 10am this morning looked like this...
Now, if I can lock in enough ‘free green’ on 0-0, I can lay
0-0 in the Correct Score market at half time to cover the liability on 0-0 in
the Half time score market. If I can
scalp 0-0 for £50 profit on that score, at half time I should be able to lay
0-0 to profit on all scores. In the
Swansea v Man Utd example, I would expect 0-0 to be at a price of approximately
5.0 at half time. Laying at half time
should then leave £10 profit on all scores, cancelling out the loss in the Half
Time Score market.
Ideally, I would try to scalp the market before kick-off as
the risk is considerably less. It can be
very dangerous scalping the current score in-play. At a tick size of 0.5 I would back to lay
with a stake of £100 pre-match. However,
if I have not secured the desired profit by the time the game goes in-play, I
reduce my scalping stake to £10 in acknowledgement of the increased risk.
One way to scalp for this trade is to place lay bets at the
front of the queue pre-match with the intention of placing the back bet at the
price above in-play. The arrows in the
above screenshot highlight opportunities of where you could place your lay bets
to get to the front of the queue. By
getting to the front of the queue the length of time you are exposed between
the back and lay bets being matched will be reduced. Ideally, you want to scalp 0-0 when the tick
size is at least 0.5, i.e the back price not being less than 10.5 so that you
can take the lay price of 10.0. After
this point the 0-0 tick size reduces by 0.2.
As I will be trading the Swansea v Man Utd game in the same
way as I did for Wigan v Arsenal yesterday there is no desperate need to secure the free
green on 0-0 early. In the above
screenshot I have begun to place the lay bets from 10.0 upwards for two
reasons. Firstly, scalping in-play is a
risky strategy therefore if you can avoid it, it is best to. In such a game with a high goal expectation
(0-0 odds of approximately 20.0 and above) the above 0-0 prices are not likely
to be reached unless the game remains goalless until about 20 mins. If a goal comes in before 20 mins you will not
require 0-0 profit as your trade will be in good shape. The second reason is for bank management;
placing lays bets on 0-0 tie up a lot of the bank therefore the lower the price
you place these bets, the more of the bank is available for use elsewhere.
If you are new to scalping, try it out with small stakes
first. I also recommend you use trading
software such as the Geeks Toy. There
are many ways to scalp but if you would like to learn more about trading check
out The Sports Trading Academy where professional traders are on hand to help
develop your skills.
Lets hope for a flood of goals in Swansea v Man Utd!
All the best
Ronnie 
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