iFootball Betting: Premier Trade: Arsenal v Newcastle

Unfortunately, last weekend's advertised trade involving Arsenal and Wigan didn't return the profit I was expecting. Despite a lively opening, the 1st half began to fizzle out and finished 0-0 which meant I could hedge my 0-0 profit in the Correct Score market for a very small loss. I went with the same trade for the Swansea v Man Utd game and that kindly delivered a nice profit. For a detailed explanation of how to execute the HT12 trade and for a method of scalping, see last weekend's post here.

Arsenal v Newcastle

Trade drivers:

· Arsenal odds on favourite and momentum with them (W3,D2,L1) compared to Newcastle (W2,D0,L4). However, a straight back of Arsenal at 1.40 offers no value (53-58% chance)

· 49-53% chance of Over 2.5 goals based on respective season long form

· 61-69% chance of BTTS ‘yes’ based on respective Home and Away season long and recent form

· Expected goals (iFB formula) 2.11 v 1.41 therefore high expectation of Over 2.5 goals & BTTS ‘yes’

· Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status; Grade A v C

o Arsenal not won in 3/4 against grade C this season however won 6 of 7 before this recent run

o Home scored / Away conceded >1.5 goals is 67% against respective graded sides in last 20 games combined, however only 6% have seen >3.5 home goals

o Expected Away team to score <1.5 goals 78% and >0.5 goals 72%

Trade:

· Entry:

o Pre-match dutch of 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1 in correct score (CS) market for 75% of total stake

o Pre-match lay of Arsenal in match odds market for liability totalling remaining stake (25%)

· Exit:

o Hedge / close trade when 2-0 or 2-1 lands, whichever is first

o If the trade goes against you, take a loss / smaller profit early as any indecisiveness will be costly. Decide on an acceptable liability and stick to it