Everton v Tottenham, Premier League Trade 9 Dec 2012

The advertised trades got off to a great start yesterday.  Things didn't quite go to plan at Chelsea, exiting the trade at half time with a -35% loss.  Arsenal went according to plan however.  The first half goal, albeit very unjust, came on 26 mins which immediately meant the trade was in the green.  A quick scalp of 1-0 once the market settled allowed me to cover half of the liability on 1-0.  2-0 or 2-1, whichever came first, was the intended exit.  The second goal came at around 65 min, however, I watched the game, and given what I was seeing was quite happy to ride the trade a little longer knowing I was protected having the next scoreline covered... the trade secured +86% profit and a much better return than the 1.57 available for the Arsenal win at kick-off.

Everton v Spurs

Trade drivers:

• Momentum with Spurs (W1 D4 L1) v (W3 D0 L3)
• Over 2.5 gls expectation 67-69%
• All Spurs away games have finished Over 2.5 gls this season
• BTTS 'yes' expectation 81-92%
• Everton have not had a clean sheet in last 6 games overall or last 6 at home
• Spurs have not failed to score away this season
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): Grade B v B
• Home goals (last 17 games combined) - Over 0.5 = 79% and Under 2.5 = 100%
• Away goals - Over 0.5 = 79% and Under 2.5 = 100%
• 1st half has seen Over 0.5 gls on 71% and less than 1.5 gls on 86% of occasions

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 1-1,1-2 & 2-1 for 90% of stake
• Place an in-play back on 2-2 at 21 (approx. price on 20 mins) for remaining 10%
• Exit
• A number of possibilities depending on level of aggression and timing of goals
• Hedge on 1-1 if equalising goal arrives 60-70 mins
• Hedge on 2-1 or even wait for 2-2 if matched

• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• 0-0 and 1-0 (either way) - scalp both scorelines for cover
• 2-0 (either way) - can either hedge when this score arrives or back 3-0 for cover depending on timing of the goal
• Scores over 2-2 - will likely pass through your target scores therefore hedge when the scoreline does so

Good luck if you decide to follow.  For more about trading see here for details about The Sports Trading Academy