English Premier League Tips 3/4 March 2012

I expected a cracker in last weekend’s north London derby between Arsenal and Spurs and it did not disappoint; it delivered the only Over 2.5 goals tip of the weekend before half-time in what eventually was a seven goal thriller. However, despite realising a 21% yield since advertising the over 2.5 goal selections, I have taken the opportunity this week to refine the strategy.  The reason for this is that the qualifying criteria has resulted in only nine picks being identified in the last six weeks.  The concern with this is not one driven by green but rather that the sample size on which the strategy is tested is very small therefore threatening its reliability. Back testing the refined strategy suggests that these refinements will result in an increased number of selections without sacrificing profitability.  There are four over 2.5 goals tips for this weekend so I hope for a good start.

The profitable Over 1.5 goals strategy disappointed last weekend with two of the selections loosing.  However overall the strategy has a 40% yield with 17/19 singles coming in along with 7/8 associated 3/4/5-folds.  This weekend there are six qualifying matches although again with odds of 1/8 in Man City / Bolton I will not be betting on this one.

As for the draw strategy, I’m still waiting for a win since the opening pick, although the change in staking strategy for the draw picks has reduced the losses.  Unfortunately there are no qualifying draw picks this weekend.  

So, EPL betting tips for the next couple of days...

Over 2.5 goals strategy

Liverpool / Arsenal

Stoke / Norwich

Blackburn / Villa

Newcastle / Sunderland

*Best returns experienced when staking for a target profit

Draw Strategy

No qualifying picks in this round of fixtures

*Best returns experienced with level stakes

Over 1.5 goals

Blackburn / Villa

QPR / Everton

Stoke / Norwich

Wigan / Swansea

Fulham / Wolves

*Best returns experienced when staking for a target profit

The Saturday Over 1.5 goals 4-fold will pay around 2/1.

As always, shop around for the best odds and only bet what you can afford to lose.  Although quick big wins are great, the above strategies are aimed at steadily increasing the betting bank and making long term profit.

For other ad-hoc tips and reaction keep an eye out on Twitter @iFootballTIPS

All the best

Ronnie.