Premier Trade: Man City v Chelsea

Man City entertain Chelsea this weekend with both teams heading into the fixture somewhat out of sorts; City having all but surrendered their premier league crown and Chelsea making hard work of whoever they encounter at the moment.  The eyes of the world will be on this fixture hoping for an entertaining and passion fuelled game with plenty of goals.  However, I believe all of the value is in the lower scores.  Under 1.5 goals offers particular value although I'm not quite brave enough to take this on so instead I'm looking to take advantage of the value in BTTS 'No'.

Trade Drivers:

• iFB expected clean sheet 27% v 30%
• This trade would have won in 8 of the last 10 Head to Heads (H2H)
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): A v A
• Under 0.5 gls expectation is 33% v 33%, Under 1.5 gls is 67% v 72%, and Under 2.5 gls expectation is 89% v 89%
• BTTS 'No' expectation is 50%

Trade:

• Entry
• Back BTTS 'No' for 70% of stake
• Dutch 2-1 and 1-2 for remainder 30% of stake
• As a straight dutch this should pay approx. 1.75.
•  Exit
• After a 3rd goal (if it arrives)
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• 1-1 - I intend to scalp this although if this scoreline lands during the game both the 2-1 and 1-2 odds will come in significantly to allow an exit for a small profit / loss / scratch depending on the time.  Depending on how the game is unfolding you may wish to wait to see if a third goal is scored before exiting, alternatively exit when your overall loss reaches an maximum limit (I often work to 50% of stake depending on the trade)
• I will trade this match in twitter so feel free to ask me any advice in-play

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Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie