Premier Trade: Fulham v Man Utd

Fulham and Man Utd have met on two occasions already this season netting a total of 10 goals between them.  The overs markets will therefore be a big draw to many but for this trade I am looking to profit in the 1st half where I believe there is some really good value.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum very much with Man Utd (W5 D1 L0) v (W2 D2 L2)
• Over 2.5 goals expectation is 71-75%
• Just 1 of last 10 Head to Heads have been 0-0 HT
• iFB 1st half goal expectancy is 1.48 goals
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): C v A
• Away win represents 19% value in HT market (odds @ 2.25 for 63% chance)
• 11% chance of 0-0 HT (-18% value) therefore Over 0.5 1st half goals @ 1.33 (14% value)
• 84% chance of Under 2.5 1st half goals

Trade:

• Entry

• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 in Half Time Score market for 40% stake
• Dutch 2-0,1-1 & 0-2 in Half Time Score market for the remaining 60% stake

•  Exit
• Hedge after 2nd goal to either remove liability or for a profit across all scores

• Dangers and possible mitigating moves 
• Over 2.5 1st half goals - this is not a problem if you hedge after the 2nd goal
• Half time 0-0 - Given the value (or lack of) in 0-0 HT you may be happy to trade with a stake that you would accept risking in full.  However, if comfortable, scalp 0-0 in the Correct Score market and hedge across all other scores at HT for reduced liability.  Alternatively, hedge before HT for an acceptable loss if 0-0 is not covered.

I will trade the match live on twitter this weekend so if you would like to get involved, or have any questions, you can find me at @iFootballTIPS

If you are interested in learning more about trading football (or even horses, darts, basketball & tennis) I can't recommend highly enough The Sports Trading Academy.  They offer a 1 month trial for only £10 which includes full access to a plethora of established football and racing trading strategies and, access to full time traders in the live trading room where knowledge, opportunities and banter are shared.

Good luck for the weekend

All the best

Ronnie