Finding Value in Premier League Clashes between the Top 4

While exploring where the value lies in this weekend’s top 4 Premier League clash I opened up the Betform Pro research tool to understand generally how all top 4 sides perform against each other (Grade A v Grade A).  The following screenshot analyses all of the HT and FT results since the 2009/10 season a total of 51 matches.

Interestingly, for a group of teams so closely matched in strengths, the occurrence of the FT draw is surprisingly low at 18%.  Typically, the draw in the EPL has an occurrence of 30% over the course of season.  Here, it can be seen that between Grade A sides the occurrence drops significantly.  For such fixtures, the break even odds for the draw would need to be 5.67 if backing the draw, however, the odds are more likely to be between 3.5 and 4.  Also, the Home side won the match on 53% of occasions compared to a league average of approximately 45%.  This suggests that backing the home side at odds above 1.89 offers a value bet.  The FT draw odds for this weekend’s Grade A clash are 3.5 and the odds for the home win are evens (2.0) suggesting plenty of value on the lay side of the draw and in backing the home side.  However, before getting too excited and blindly jumping on what initially appear to be value bets, it is important to consider how each team contributes to these general observations.  In particular, we need to understand how Man City and Chelsea, who meet this afternoon, perform in such Grade A match-ups.

The above screenshot is taken from Betfrom Pro’s pre-matchquery tool and compares Man City at home v Grade A sides and Chelsea away to Grade A sides.  The value on offer by the best available odds is highlighted in the V% column; blue indicating a value bet and pink highlighting a lack of value.  Straight away you can see that the generalised trend regarding the likelihood of the home win is not supported by this fixture (the occurrence of the home win being 44%).  However, the draw appears to conform to the overall A v A trend although, for me, at -4% there is not enough value to consider getting involved in a lay bet.  The combined effect of the lack of value in the home win and draw is that Chelsea offer value in the away win.  However, please do not be mistaken that I am promoting the Chelsea win today, I always use Betform Pro to support other observations and analysis and, given that Chelsea have been far from convincing lately, I will not be taking this bet.

So, what’s the point of this post?  Well, we can take away two observations to consider for future matches between the Premier League’s elite.

1.   The occurrence of the draw (18%) is significantly low compared to the league average and therefore offers the potential for value on the lay side.  However, Man City at home to Grade A has resulted in a draw on 30% of occasions which is significantly higher than the observed average.  This suggests there is even more value on the lay side of the draw when the home team is another of the Grade A teams.

2.   The occurrence of the home win is 53% therefore requires odds of greater than 1.89 for a value bet, quite common between closely matched teams.  However, Man City’s average on this side of the market pulls the overall average down, which means the opposite is the case when an/other Grade A team/s play at home.

One final observation to make, and one that may be of interest to the pre-match or in-play draw layers:  Of all of the Grade A v Grade A matches observed, 2/3^rd of draws have finished 0-0 and the first goal has always been scored before the 70^th min – something to bear in mind if the game is still 0-0 after 70 mins and  you are considering laying the draw or 0-0.

Betform Pro allows users to interrogate various scenarios such as how a certain team has performed at home not only against all teams but against similar grades/abilities of teams they are due to play.  Betform Pro covers the major European leagues and is currently available to trial free for a month.

All the best,
Ronnie