Premier Trade: Spurs v Newcastle

This weekend's Premier League action kicks off at White Hart Lane where Spurs entertain a Newcastle side that will no doubt feel rejuvenated from the recent addition of some quality talent and the much needed 6 points obtained from their last two games.  While momentum lies with Spurs, Newcastle's last two performances will certainly have many punters thinking twice about jumping on a Spurs victory.  Today's trade is ideal for such an occasion where picking a winner is not so clear cut.

Trade Drivers:

• Similar momentum (W3 D3 L0) v (W2 D1 L3)
• iFB expected goals 1.95 v 1.09
• No 0-0s and just one 1-0 in last 12 Head to Heads (H2H)
• Expectation of 1 goal in 1st half (expected 1st half goals 0.97)
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): B v C
• Over 0.5 goals expectation is 94%, Over 1.5 goals is 72%
• 1st half <1.5 goals expectation is83%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 1-0 & 0-1 for 10% of stake
• Dutch 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 for 25% of stake, and
• Dutch 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3 for remaining 65% of stake
• The P/L across the book should read approx.
• 0 goals: -100%
• 1 goal: -30%
• 2 goals: 0%
• 3 goals: +190%
• 4+ goals: -100%
•  Exit
• Hedge after the 3rd goal
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• An early 2nd goal - ideally we only want 1 first half goal at most, however, if we get 2 goals before half time, close the trade for a loss or take cover in Over 3.5.  Alternatively, the more advanced trader might like to combine this trade with my HT12 trade as described in an earlier post here
• 4+ goals - this is only a danger if you don't hedge after the 3rd goal
• Ideally we want the 3rd goal to arrive as late in the game as possible for maximum profit.  However, if the 3rd goal arrives with say 25 mins remaining, consider spending some of the green available on laying the current score or covering the over 3.5 / 4.5 markets (only if you feel more goals are to expected based on how the game is unfolding).

If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie