Malmo v Mjallby Trade, 1st Sep 2012

I'm still tip-toeing around the English Premier League at the moment while the league settles down so I will be concentrating on the Swedish Allsvenkan today and Malmo v Mjallby.  I've been analysing the predictive model that I have been testing on the Swedish and Norwegian leagues of late and I've made some very interesting observations which I would expect will improve the strike rate.

The stats for today's game...



The stat that immediately jumps out is Malmo's goals against record at home - 0 in the last 6 and 0.1 per game average for the season to date.  Despite Mjallby's better than a goal per game average, odds of around evens for 'No' in the BTTS market looks like a gift.  I would expect that Malmo's home defensive superiority and the fact that they are not as prolific at home can be explained by most away teams playing tight when they visit Malmo.

The Correct Score model is predicting 1-0  1-1  2-0  2-1  AUQ but given the home odds of 1.4 for the win and the expectation of the away side failing to score, I will be trading  

1-0, 2-0, 2-1 & AUQ.

All the best

Ronnie