Premier Trade: Sunderland v Norwich

Sunderland host Norwich in Sunday's lunchtime fixture and you might be excused for not getting over excited about this match.  Both sides will still be looking over their shoulders having not yet done enough to be confident of avoiding relegation.  Recent form will not fill Sunderland with confidence having picked up 2 points in the last 6 games while over the same period Norwich have only won once.  Despite this, I believe the value lies in a Sunderland victory and I have picked out a suitable correct score trade to take advantage of this value.

Trade Drivers:

• Momentum (W0 D2 L4) v (W1 D4 L1)
• iFB expected goals 1.11 v 0.87
• Norwich scored >1 goal once away all season in their only one away win
• Combined average goals / game (last 6) is 2.0
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): C v D
• Home win expectation is 68% (19% value)
• BTTS 'No' expectation is 63% (13% value)

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 & 2-1 for 85% of stake
• Dutch 0-1 & 3-0 for remaining 15% of stake
• The Profit / Loss across the book should read approx.
• 0-0: -100%
• 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 & 2-1: +90%
• 0-1 & 3-0: +20%
• All other scores: -100%
•  Exit
• Decide on an acceptable loss (e.g. 50% of stake) and exit at this point if the trade goes against us.
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• No goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - if confident scalp the 0-0 alternatively cover it with a small stake
• Norwich take the lead - considering spending some potential covering 1-2 or 0-2 depending on how late in the game this occurs.

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Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie