Premier Trade: Liverpool v Chelsea

Rafa Benitez returns to Anfield this Sunday where he will be hoping for 3 points and a rare warm welcome.  Chelsea are still in the thick of a battle for the Champion's League places while Liverpool will be wanting to prove themselves against one of the league's elite.  Historically fixtures between the two have been open games and this should be no different.  Sunday's trade is ideal for such an occasion where a couple of goals are fancied and picking a winner is not so clear cut.

Trade Drivers:

• Similar momentum (W3 D2 L1) v (W4 D0 L2)
• iFB expected goals 1.82 v 1.34
• No 0-0s and just one 1-0 in last 10 Head to Heads (H2H)
• Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): B v A
• Total 2 - 3 goals expectation is 67%
• Over 1.5 goals expectation is 89%
• BTTS 'Yes' expectation is 67%

Trade:

• Entry
• Dutch 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 for 30% of stake, and
• Dutch 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3 for remaining 70% of stake
• The P/L across the book should read approx.
• 0 goals: -100%
• 1 goal: -100%
• 2 goals: +25%
• 3 goals: +210%
• 4+ goals: -100%
•  Exit
• Hedge after the 3rd goal
• Dangers and possible mitigating moves
• 0 - 1 goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - consider covering 0-1 / 1-0 if there is an early goal as the odds will be much greater than at kick off.  It is important that if the second goal has not arrived you exit to a pre-determined acceptable loss.
• An early 3rd goal - ideally we only want the 3rd goal to arrive as late as possible, however, if we get 3 goals before half time, close the trade for a loss - I would expect approximately 50% loss if there are 3 goals by half time.
• 4+ goals - this is only a danger if you don't hedge after the 3rd goal

If you would like to learn more about trading, including strategies for reducing losses and maximising profits in-play, check out The Sports Trading Academy where you can learn the necessary skills needed, from professional traders.

Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie